Aleksandar Vučić’s United Serbia list leads the market at 71.5% implied probability for the October 25 snap parliamentary election because the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) retains a strong organizational base and voter mobilization network after 14 years in power, despite Vučić’s recent resignation as president to pursue the prime minister post. The Student List – Students Win, backed by two years of protests over the 2024 Novi Sad station collapse and governance issues, trails at 29% and represents the strongest opposition challenge in over a decade, drawing large rallies and polling near or slightly ahead of SNS in some recent surveys. Proportional representation with a 3% threshold favors established lists, while concerns over voter register irregularities and campaign conduct have raised questions about fairness without altering the trader consensus. Most other lists remain at or below 0.1–50%, consistent with their limited expected support.