Statutory requirements under federal law fix the 2026 midterm elections for November 3, with early in-person and mail voting already underway in multiple states. This legal framework, which reserves any date change to Congress rather than executive action, underpins the 98.7% implied probability for the elections occurring as scheduled. Ongoing campaign activity, ballot distribution, and court oversight of related voting procedures further reinforce trader expectations. While an extreme national emergency or congressional legislation could theoretically alter the timeline, no such developments have emerged to shift the consensus reflected in current pricing.