The TX-15 contest between Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido and Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz remains tightly matched, with recent polls showing Pulido ahead by roughly 7 points in a district shifted by 2025 redistricting. Forecasters rate the seat a toss-up after earlier lean-Republican assessments, reflecting Pulido’s name recognition among Latino voters and competitive fundraising near $6 million each. High Democratic enthusiasm tied to the broader Texas Senate race and mixed views on border security have narrowed historical Republican margins. Late shifts in turnout among independents or swing voters in the Rio Grande Valley could widen the final spread before November 3.