US intelligence assessments and observable military patterns indicate Beijing continues prioritizing gray-zone coercion—such as coast guard incursions, aerial patrols, and disinformation—over full-scale amphibious operations, with readiness hampered by ongoing PLA purges and economic constraints. Recent Xi-Trump diplomacy in September 2026 reinforced mutual caution around Taiwan, while analysts project any potential force option shifting toward 2028 after Taiwan’s elections rather than the final weeks of 2026. Trader consensus reflects this compressed timeline and lack of mobilization indicators. A sudden leadership miscalculation, major cross-strait incident, or unexpected external shock could still prompt reassessment, though such developments remain low-probability in the immediate term.