US officials assess that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 has become increasingly unlikely, citing People's Liberation Army readiness delays from anti-corruption purges and Beijing's interest in Taiwan's January 2028 presidential election outcomes. Recent cross-strait developments include routine gray-zone patrols by PLA aircraft and vessels, live-fire drills along China's coast following President Lai Ching-te's National Day address, and carrier transits, which analysts view as coercive signaling rather than imminent attack preparations. US-China summits have produced trade truces and crisis communication steps without altering core positions on Taiwan. Trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% probability on no invasion by end-2027 aligns with these assessments of structural barriers and preference for political openings over force in the near term.