The People's Bank of China held its one-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and five-year rate at 3.5% in October 2026 for the 17th consecutive month, aligning with market expectations following stronger-than-anticipated third-quarter GDP growth of 4.5%. Policymakers have emphasized fiscal measures and reforms to the monetary framework, including Governor Pan Gongsheng’s signals on shifting the primary policy anchor toward the overnight reverse repurchase rate for improved transmission, without treating the adjustment as an easing move. This steady approach, combined with Beijing’s progress toward its 4.5-5.0% annual growth target and limited scope for conventional cuts, underpins the dominant trader consensus for no rate change by year-end. Developments such as weaker fourth-quarter data releases, intensified external pressures, or explicit easing signals at upcoming meetings could still alter positioning.