Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, including strikes that began in February 2026 and a collapsed June ceasefire, have left no formal diplomatic presence or physical embassy in Tehran, with Switzerland acting as protecting power. Recent indirect talks via Qatari and Pakistani intermediaries have stalled over sequencing of demands, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting sanctions and naval blockades, and addressing Iran's nuclear program. Traders assign 97% probability to no embassy reopening in 2026 due to these entrenched disputes, continued sanctions designations, and absence of normalization steps. A comprehensive agreement resolving nuclear concerns, regional proxy issues, and maritime security before year-end could still shift the outcome, though current exchanges show limited progress toward such a framework.