Ongoing Iranian ballistic missile and drone strikes on Jordanian territory, particularly U.S. air bases such as Al-Azraq, have defined the market amid the broader 2026 Iran conflict. Tehran has launched repeated barrages in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli operations against Iranian targets, including oil tankers and military sites, with Jordanian air defenses intercepting the majority of projectiles in October while some debris landed in remote areas. Jordan maintains elevated readiness, activates bilateral defense agreements, and has summoned Iranian diplomats while declaring its sovereignty a red line. Trader consensus reflects these documented qualifying military actions through late October, alongside risks of further escalation before the resolution window closes. No major diplomatic de-escalation has occurred.