Recent diplomatic signals, including Russia's agreement in principle to resume US-mediated trilateral talks with Ukraine in November after meetings involving envoy Steve Witkoff, have not narrowed core differences on territorial control, NATO membership, and security guarantees. Russian demands for full authority over Donetsk and a comprehensive postwar framework rather than a temporary ceasefire remain unchanged, while battlefield operations continue with strikes on Ukrainian cities. These factors sustain trader consensus that a signed peace deal before 2027 faces substantial procedural and substantive barriers, even as scheduled negotiations could create openings for incremental progress or external shifts.