Israel’s October 27 parliamentary election is the central driver of trader positioning on Netanyahu’s tenure. Polls show Likud and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party in a close contest, with neither the incumbent’s right-wing coalition nor the opposition bloc projected to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Netanyahu continues to campaign on security priorities and relations with the United States, while Eisenkot emphasizes accountability for the October 2023 attacks. Coalition talks after the vote are expected to be protracted, and several opposition figures have ruled out relying on Arab parties. Recent security incidents in the West Bank and Trump’s endorsement have featured in the final days of campaigning. A deadlock or repeat election would leave Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister into 2027.