Ongoing geopolitical tensions and security risks from the US-Iran conflict have driven the 94% market-implied probability for an average of 0-5 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by month-end. Since late February 2026, attacks on vessels, Iranian permit requirements, and a US naval blockade have restricted AIS-visible commercial traffic to roughly 3-5 crossings daily—about 4% of the pre-crisis baseline near 85—pushing Brent crude above $113 per barrel amid supply concerns. Trader consensus reflects sustained low throughput, with limited “dark” transits under naval coordination failing to restore normal volumes. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or verified de-escalation could lift averages, though recent incidents like reported tanker strikes indicate persistent barriers through October 31.