Traders assign a 97.8% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 due to the brief remaining window of under 70 days and the absence of verifiable large-scale amphibious mobilization or sudden escalatory signals. Recent months have featured continued routine People’s Liberation Army aircraft and naval activity around the island, including ADIZ incursions and coast guard patrols described as hybrid measures, alongside influence operations ahead of Taiwan’s November local elections. These steps align with longstanding pressure tactics rather than preparations for imminent conflict. Diplomatic exchanges, such as Xi Jinping’s September visit to Washington, and joint U.S.-Japan exercises have also proceeded without triggering major cross-strait crises. A shift would require rapid, large-scale force concentration or a major miscalculation during drills, both of which face substantial logistical and political constraints in the short term.