Russia launched a major ballistic missile and drone barrage on Kyiv overnight into October 22, 2026, hours after U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff met Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg, where the Russian president agreed in principle to resume three-way negotiations with Ukraine after November 10. The strikes, involving at least 21 ballistic missiles including cluster munitions, damaged residential buildings, energy infrastructure, transport sites, and a monastery while killing at least one person and wounding dozens across the capital and other regions. Ukraine reported downing most accompanying drones but none of the missiles, and responded with its own large-scale drone attack toward Moscow. This escalation amid renewed diplomatic signals continues a pattern of Russian aerial operations targeting Ukrainian cities and power systems, shaping trader assessments of near-term strike probabilities on specific dates.