Russia’s partial lift of its diesel export restrictions on October 10, following the Putin-Trump agreement to release up to 800,000 metric tons initially and scale toward 3–3.5 million tons monthly by year-end, has driven the 95.8% market-implied probability against reinstatement of the full ban by October 31. Confirmed loadings from Primorsk, including a 40,000-ton ultra-low sulfur diesel cargo destined for Morocco, alongside Deputy Prime Minister Novak’s statements that domestic needs remain fully met, reinforce trader consensus backed by real capital. This aligns with broader efforts to stabilize global fuel prices amid U.S. supply pressures ahead of midterms. Tail-risk scenarios include renewed refinery outages from infrastructure strikes or sudden domestic shortages that could prompt policy reversal before month-end.