Recent proposals for a trilateral summit involving Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the November APEC forum in Shenzhen have positioned China as the leading outcome in trader assessments. Trump has stated openness to such talks focused on arms control and Ukraine-related issues, while Russian officials have confirmed diplomatic discussions and Beijing has signaled no objection. This development, emerging from an October 9 Trump-Putin call and advancing through mid-October envoy meetings, aligns with the 77.5% implied probability for a China venue. Uncertainty over final agreement keeps the no-meeting-by-year-end share at 16%, while low probabilities for the United States or other sites reflect the absence of comparable recent catalysts or scheduled events favoring those locations.