Traders assign an overwhelming 78% probability to no direct meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy by the end of 2027 because recent diplomatic signals point only to lower-level technical talks rather than a leaders’ summit. In late October 2026, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff secured Russian and Ukrainian agreement in principle to resume trilateral negotiations with Washington, potentially in November and possibly in Abu Dhabi, focused on postwar security arrangements. Both sides continue military operations, however, and longstanding gaps remain over territorial control and guarantees. Moscow has historically insisted on extensive preparatory work before any Putin-Zelenskyy encounter, while Kyiv has conditioned direct talks on firm security commitments. These constraints, combined with the absence of confirmed leader-level scheduling, keep probabilities for all specific venues—including the United States, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Hungary, and others—below 6%.