Ongoing tensions in Russia's security apparatus and the prolonged Ukraine conflict continue to shape trader assessments of coup risks. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian energy infrastructure and alleged attempts near presidential residences have heightened Kremlin alerts, prompting FSB detentions of suspected saboteurs and accusations of foreign plots. U.S. diplomatic efforts for an energy ceasefire have produced limited results amid mutual violations, while parliamentary elections reinforced ruling party dominance without easing elite frictions. Reports note tightened personal security around senior leadership and estimates of moderate internal risk from agency rivalries and wartime pressures. No major scheduled events like elections or summits immediately loom, though battlefield developments or further hybrid incidents could influence stability perceptions.