Market-implied odds indicate that traders assign over 99% probability to either no Hormuz Agreement by October 23 or oil remaining at or above $80 ahead of the midterms, driven by ongoing Strait of Hormuz supply risks and limited diplomatic progress that has kept energy benchmarks elevated. Within this dominant scenario, Democrats hold a 70.3% implied probability of Senate control versus 29.1% for Republicans, reflecting aggregated positioning ahead of key economic releases that could sway voter sentiment on inflation and growth. The minimal 0.4% combined odds on an agreement coinciding with oil below $80 highlight the high barriers to rapid de-escalation and price relief, consistent with recent Treasury yield movements and volatility measures pricing in sustained geopolitical uncertainty.