Stalled US-Iran negotiations over sequencing of concessions on the naval blockade, Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, and nuclear issues continue to shape trader assessments of ceasefire durability. The June 2026 memorandum of understanding collapsed weeks after signing, with both sides resuming limited strikes and Iran restricting shipping while the US maintains its blockade. As of late October 2026, Iranian officials have prolonged indirect talks via mediators to influence the November 3 midterms, citing distrust that Washington may resume strikes afterward. President Trump has signaled potential escalation post-election, while Russia has engaged in mediation efforts. Upcoming midterm results and any post-election policy shifts remain key catalysts that could alter the probability of sustained de-escalation.