Ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, now in its 238th day, continues to suppress commercial traffic to roughly 5% of the pre-crisis baseline of 84.8 daily transits, with recent AIS data showing just 4.3 crossings per day amid persistent Iranian attacks, U.S. naval coordination requirements, and severe threat levels. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at around 32 times peacetime rates, prompting widespread rerouting and vessel idling that has sustained Brent crude near $116 per barrel. With only eight days until the October 31 resolution date and no near-term diplomatic or military de-escalation signals, trader consensus reflects the low probability of normalization. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire or major policy shift that could restore flows, though such outcomes appear remote given current momentum.