**US economic and military pressure on Iran has intensified through a naval blockade and targeted strikes on military sites at Kharg Island, yet these actions have not altered Iranian governmental or military control over the island.** Kharg remains Iran's primary crude export terminal, handling the vast majority of its oil shipments, but loading operations have been largely suspended since late August amid the blockade, with no tankers observed at main berths in recent weeks. US strikes have focused on air defenses, radar, and other military assets rather than seizing territory or oil infrastructure. Reports of potential further strikes or operations to pressure negotiations over the nuclear program and Strait of Hormuz have circulated, but no occupation or transfer of authority has occurred. The low implied probability in the market reflects the significant operational and strategic barriers to any external force establishing primary control before year-end.