Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Supreme Leader in March 2026 after his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a February 28 US-Israeli airstrike that opened the current conflict. The Assembly of Experts reached majority consensus on his selection despite internal debates over process and candidates, and a transitional leadership council has managed affairs amid ongoing strikes. Trader odds for near-term change remain low because the appointment signals hardliner continuity backed by the Revolutionary Guards, even as reports indicate Mojtaba has sustained serious injuries limiting public appearances and direct communication. Key variables include the war’s trajectory, any further leadership casualties, IRGC influence over strategy, and whether health or factional pressures force a shift before mid-2027 deadlines.