Recent Houthi threats and attacks in the southern Red Sea, combined with a partial rebound in container and vehicle carrier transits, are the main factors keeping Polymarket odds nearly even between the 170-189 and 190-209 ship ranges at 41.5% and 41.0% implied probability. Weekly counts have fluctuated between roughly 260 and 290 vessels in recent periods per Lloyd’s List and Kpler data, though IMF PortWatch satellite estimates show lower figures near 180 amid dark transits and selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Elevated insurance costs and ongoing incidents have capped tanker flows, particularly Saudi-linked crude, while some operators resume Suez routing to cut fuel expenses. Trader consensus prices in this narrow band of outcomes given the week’s proximity to resolution and variable AIS reporting.