Ukrainian forces have expanded control in the Donbas through Operation Vivaldi, achieving net territorial gains of over 100 square kilometers since early September 2026 while contesting Russian advances near Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk. Recent ISW assessments show Ukrainian units clearing infiltrators and pushing Russian positions eastward, with verified liberations contradicting Russian claims of encirclements around areas like Dobropillya. These battlefield shifts, alongside ongoing Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, shape trader views on whether Ukrainian troops can re-enter specific settlements such as Terny within the market's timeframe. Scheduled diplomatic efforts and frontline momentum remain key variables that could influence further movements before resolution.