Escalating Iranian attacks, including multiple supertanker mine strikes reported October 17–18, have kept AIS-visible commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at severely restricted levels averaging 4–10 per day versus the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 80, sustaining 15–30x war-risk insurance premiums and supporting Brent crude near $110. U.S.-facilitated “dark” transits have enabled some oil flows—CENTCOM cited hundreds of assisted movements in recent weeks—but official tracking and carrier rerouting decisions reflect persistent risk, with only marginal recovery in daily volumes. With resolution by October 31 just days away, trader sentiment hinges on whether diplomatic signals from Tehran or U.S. naval operations produce a single-day surge above typical recent counts before month-end.