Ongoing military tensions between Iran and the United States, stemming from strikes that began in late February 2026, have kept the Strait of Hormuz under severe restrictions for more than 230 days. Iran maintains claims of authority, requires transit permits through its Persian Gulf Strait Authority, and has conducted repeated attacks on commercial vessels, including a reported wave of seven tanker incidents on October 22. The United States continues a naval blockade of Iranian ports alongside limited escorted transits in a southern corridor, resulting in AIS-visible commercial traffic averaging just 4–5 vessels daily versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85. Diplomatic efforts, including a June memorandum that collapsed shortly after signing, remain stalled, with Iran conditioning any full reopening on the end of U.S. restrictions. October has seen the highest monthly attack total since the conflict began, sustaining elevated war-risk premiums and deterring normal free transit through year-end.