The commanding 92.4% trader consensus on no Hormuz Agreement before the midterms stems primarily from the ongoing stalemate in U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran has prolonged talks and maintained shipping restrictions to sustain pressure on oil prices ahead of the November vote. Recent Senate rejection of war powers measures and reports of stalled diplomacy, including Iran's insistence on sanctions relief and blockade removal before any reopening, have reinforced views that a qualifying joint acceptance remains unlikely by the early-November deadline. Conditional Senate outcomes tied to an agreement sit below 6% each, reflecting the market's assessment that two independent events—a verified deal plus a specific majority—face high procedural and timing barriers. A late breakthrough via mediator channels or sudden concession on nuclear issues could still shift probabilities, though current positioning and past collapsed proposals limit that path.