Robust U.S. economic expansion through mid-2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied odds against a recession by year-end. Real GDP advanced at a 2.2% annualized pace in Q2, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projecting 3.5% for Q3 and the Conference Board forecasting full-year growth near 2.2%. The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment at 4.2% in September despite softer payroll gains, while AI-driven business investment and consumer spending provide ongoing support. Elevated inflation, with September CPI at 3.7% year-over-year and core measures sticky, has prompted the Fed to hold the federal funds rate at 3.75–4.00%, but leading indicators show no contraction signal. The primary near-term catalyst is the October 29 Q3 GDP release alongside the FOMC decision. A sharper-than-expected contraction in final-quarter data or an unforeseen external shock could still alter the outcome before resolution.