Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by the September 2026 FOMC’s unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75–4.00% range and median dot-plot projection of 4.1% by year-end, underpins the 75.5% market-implied probability of another 2026 rate increase. Recent hotter-than-expected September CPI data, with headline inflation rising to 3.7% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, alongside energy-price pressures, have shifted trader consensus toward a December move after an expected hold at the October 27–28 meeting. Stable labor-market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1–4.2%, have tempered urgency but not offset upside inflation risks, aligning futures pricing with an 88% chance of at least one additional hike before 2027.