Strong September CPI data showing a 0.6% monthly rise and 3.7% annual headline inflation, with core at 2.6%, has reinforced expectations for additional monetary tightening amid persistent price pressures above the Fed's 2% target. The Federal Reserve's September 25 basis point hike to the 3.75%-4.00% range, coupled with a solid labor market at 4.2% unemployment and steady economic growth, has shifted consensus toward a pause at the late-October FOMC meeting followed by a 25 basis point increase at the December 8-9 gathering. Recent Reuters polling of economists shows unanimous support for the December move, aligning with market-implied odds and reflecting updated views on sticky inflation and the need for further policy adjustment.
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