Market-implied odds show overwhelming trader consensus for zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s shift to a tightening stance. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, with recent PCE readings near 3.4–3.7%, combined with solid economic growth and a stable labor market, prompted the September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75–4.00% range and broad expectations of another increase in December. FOMC communications emphasize data dependence and a clear preference for holding or raising rates to restore price stability rather than easing. While the strong positioning leaves little room for cuts, a sharp deterioration in employment data or faster disinflation could still alter the path before year-end.