Trump's May 2026 appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair anchors the 97.5% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. Public statements from the White House continue to signal reliance on Warsh amid ongoing inflation pressures and FOMC rate decisions, even as the president has critiqued other board members. Institutional norms around central bank independence, reinforced by recent Supreme Court precedent, combined with Warsh's hawkish policy actions and vows to prioritize the Fed's price-stability mandate, have sustained trader consensus. While tail risks include escalation if inflation data forces further rate hikes that clash with administration preferences, no qualifying formal action or unequivocal announcement has materialized, keeping the resolution firmly in "No" territory.