Recent hotter-than-expected September CPI data showing 3.7% year-over-year inflation, alongside core PCE projections revised to 3.4%, have reinforced the case for additional tightening in the current cycle. The FOMC’s September Summary of Economic Projections placed the median federal funds rate at 4.1% by year-end 2026—implying one further 25-basis-point hike after the September move to the 3.75–4.00% range—while resilient GDP growth forecasts near 2.3% and a stable labor market with unemployment around 4.1–4.2% support the hawkish tilt. Market-implied odds heavily favor two total 2026 hikes at 69.5%, reflecting trader consensus on this path versus one or three moves amid ongoing inflation risks. The October 27–28 FOMC meeting is widely expected to hold steady, leaving the December decision as the key near-term catalyst for any adjustment to these probabilities.