Recent Bank of Canada communications and survey data have driven the sharp rise in market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike to 2.50% at the October 28 decision. Governor Tiff Macklem’s remarks on upward revisions to the inflation outlook, combined with the latest Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations showing elevated longer-term inflation expectations, prompted a rapid repricing in overnight swaps from roughly 30% to around 80% probability. September CPI printed at 3.1% year-over-year, exceeding the 1-3% target band amid energy prices near $117 per barrel, while core measures remained contained near 1.9%. This forward-looking concern over potential second-round effects outweighs softer underlying data and weak employment trends, aligning trader consensus with the current 79.7% implied probability for the 25 bp increase.