**Zeeshan Wahla leads trader consensus at 60.5% for the Surrey City Centre seat in the October 24, 2026 British Columbia provincial election, ahead of incumbent Amna Shah (NDP) at 25.5% and minor candidates.** The riding, newly created in 2023 and first contested in 2024, produced one of the province’s tightest results then, with Shah defeating Wahla by just 232 votes (46.7% to 45.1%). Recent polling projections from models such as 338Canada and Qc125 show the Conservative candidate ahead or in a toss-up, driven by provincial trends and local momentum. The October 17–18 Surrey municipal election, in which former mayor Doug McCallum’s slate won decisively on platforms emphasizing public safety and fiscal restraint, has reinforced perceptions of shifting voter sentiment in the riding. Wahla’s campaign has highlighted education commitments and cost-of-living issues, while the four-candidate field limits vote splitting. Traders appear to price the narrow 2024 precedent, current projections, and recent municipal outcome as tilting probability toward the Conservative challenger in this rematch.