The October 24, 2026, British Columbia provincial election in Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows features incumbent NDP MLA and cabinet minister Lisa Beare against Conservative Doug Morneau, alongside minor-party candidates from OneBC and CentreBC. The riding delivered a 55-45 NDP win in 2024, yet current polling shows a toss-up driven by provincial cost-of-living pressures, voter reaction to the snap election timing, and Conservative emphasis on affordability. Beare highlights local education capital projects and her long cabinet record, while Morneau, a local businessman with community involvement, appeals on economic concerns. The Polymarket pricing, with Morneau at 54.5 percent and Beare at 41.5 percent, reflects trader consensus on competitive dynamics and potential vote fragmentation that could decide the outcome on election night.