The Parti Québécois secured a commanding lead in pre-election polling through 2026 as the Coalition Avenir Québec collapsed and francophone voters shifted toward the PQ under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, translating into a projected seat range of 60-64 via efficient concentration in key ridings. Traders price this outcome at 99 percent because the party's roughly 28 percent popular vote share still produced a near-majority under Quebec's first-past-the-post system, consistent with final campaign surveys and seat models. A post-election Léger poll indicates the PQ's sovereignty referendum pledge capped broader support and kept the party just short of 64 seats. Late recounts, official adjustments, or turnout variances in tight districts remain the primary factors that could realistically shift the total into the 55-59 bracket.