**Banxico’s policy rate has remained at 6.50% through recent meetings amid headline inflation at 3.45% in September 2026 and core inflation easing to 3.75%, still above the 3% target.** Trader-implied odds heavily favor no change in December at 80%, reflecting upside risks from potential tariff pass-through, peso volatility, and external pressures that outweigh evidence of economic slack. Minutes highlight a data-dependent stance with some members open to a one-off cut only if disinflation continues steadily, while the board emphasizes it will not mechanically follow the Fed. This pricing aligns with analyst surveys expecting limited or no easing through year-end, given inflation expectations around 4% for 2026 and the need for further confirmation of sustained progress toward target.