Resilient U.S. growth momentum, fueled by AI-driven business investment and steady consumer spending, underpins the 65% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2027. Recent data show Q2 GDP at +1.5% annualized with Q3 tracking near 3%, unemployment holding at 4.1-4.2%, and forecasters projecting 2.1-2.4% full-year GDP expansion for both 2026 and 2027. Elevated core PCE inflation near 3.1-3.4% prompted the Fed’s September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4% target range, with markets pricing one additional increase by year-end and limited further tightening. Low near-term recession signals from yield-curve models and economist surveys around 24% for the next 12 months reinforce trader consensus, though sticky energy prices and potential policy missteps remain swing factors ahead of the October FOMC and Q3 employment release.