The Banco de la República’s October 30 decision occurs with the policy rate at 12.25% following the September 25-basis-point hike that surprised markets amid persistent inflation pressures. September CPI rose to 6.29% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2024—more than double the 3% target, with core measures also elevated and risks from El Niño affecting food and regulated prices. Board divisions in September (four votes for the hike, two to hold, one for 50 basis points) underscore ongoing debate over tightening versus supporting investment amid supply-driven inflation. Trader consensus on Polymarket, with no change at 59.5% and a 25-basis-point increase at 25.5%, reflects views that the recent adjustment may suffice while acknowledging potential for further restriction before any easing path emerges.