**Recent inflation readings around 4.1% year-over-year in September 2026, driven by fuel and food prices amid Middle East tensions, combined with weak domestic growth projected near 0.2% for the full year, anchor trader expectations for the Central Bank of Chile to hold its 4.5% policy rate at the December meeting.** Surveys of economists and market participants project the tasa de política monetaria remaining at 4.5% through early 2027, reflecting a cautious stance as the bank evaluates data meeting-by-meeting. The real policy rate sits near the lower end of neutral estimates, while core inflation trends closer to target and inflation expectations at the two-year horizon align with the 3% goal. Geopolitical risks and subdued activity create balanced but contained pressures for near-term adjustments, supporting the elevated implied probability of no change relative to smaller probabilities attached to 25 or 50 basis point shifts in either direction.