Recent hotter-than-expected September CPI data, with core rising 0.33% month-over-month to 2.6% year-over-year, has elevated trader expectations for the September Core PCE release due October 29. This follows August Core PCE holding at 3.0% year-over-year and supports the market-implied 44.5% probability on 3.1% alongside 30.5% on 3.0%. Persistent services and shelter pressures, alongside firm supercore readings, are sustaining underlying inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and reinforcing a hawkish policy stance after the September federal funds rate hike. The upcoming print will inform whether the recent CPI reacceleration translates into the Fed’s preferred gauge, with traders monitoring for any shift in the rate-cut or hike path priced into Treasury yields and Fed funds futures.