The Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders has anchored trader expectations that the regime will endure through the end of 2026. Security forces, now more prominently led by the Revolutionary Guards, have maintained cohesion without major defections despite economic collapse, inflation exceeding 80 percent, and earlier anti-government protests. External pressure has shifted some domestic sentiment toward pro-state rallies, while the absence of a unified opposition or institutional fracture has limited pathways to rapid change. Mojtaba Khamenei’s formal succession has preserved core structures even amid opaque governance. Late-breaking developments such as further leadership splits or decisive military escalation could still alter the timeline before year-end.