The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and security apparatus cohesion underpin the 94.5% trader consensus that it will not fall before 2027. Despite the 2026 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, installation of Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, major U.S.-Israeli strikes earlier in the year, and January protests suppressed with thousands of reported deaths, the Revolutionary Guards and state structures have shown no high-level defections or breakdown. Recent October 2026 developments, including stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, renewed strike threats, and leadership factional strains, have not produced coordinated opposition or elite fracture capable of triggering collapse within the remaining timeline. Economic sanctions pressure and internal disputes persist, yet historical precedent of regime adaptation to shocks supports the low implied probability of rapid regime change before the end of 2026.