Washington voters will decide Initiative 638 on November 3, 2026, which would bar biologically male students from girls’ K-12 sports and require healthcare-provider verification of biological sex via reproductive anatomy, genetics, or testosterone levels for all participants in female-designated activities. Trader consensus sits near even amid competing narratives of competitive fairness and safety for female athletes versus concerns over added medical steps for every girl and impacts on a small number of transgender participants. Recent polling shows majority support with sizable undecided voters, while specific incidents involving male athletes in girls’ events and a U.S. Supreme Court ruling upholding state restrictions have shaped momentum. Active campaigns from both sides, legislative inaction earlier this year, and the WIAA’s stance on existing law keep the outcome sensitive to final turnout and messaging in the closing weeks.