The upcoming October 27 Knesset election and ensuing coalition negotiations drive the tight trader consensus around the next Justice Minister. Netanyahu has signaled that the portfolio will remain with Likud, countering Otzma Yehudit leader Ben-Gvir’s push to install Tally Gotliv, while current minister Yariv Levin continues handling judicial appointments and reform efforts amid ongoing court disputes. Potential alternatives such as Gideon Sa’ar or Simcha Rothman reflect intra-coalition bargaining over portfolios, with the 36.5% probability assigned to no appointment by late February underscoring risks of prolonged government formation. This skin-in-the-game pricing captures the fluid electoral math and partner demands that could shift outcomes once results clarify the path to a majority.