The open seat in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District, following Rep. Angie Craig’s decision to run for Senate, features Democrat Matt Little against Republican Eric Pratt in a D+3 district that has trended Democratic in recent cycles. A September 2026 poll showed Little leading 52-40, while nonpartisan ratings classify the race as likely Democratic with projected margins typically in the low double digits. Traders assign comparable probabilities to Democrat margins of 10-25 points, reflecting uncertainty over turnout among suburban voters, limited late-cycle polling, and the impact of the broader national environment on the exact spread. The low odds on a Republican win or a margin exceeding 30 points align with the district’s partisan baseline and the candidates’ established local profiles. Election Day on November 3 remains the key resolution trigger.