Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election shows both the pro-Netanyahu right-wing bloc and the opposition centered on Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party falling short of the 61 seats needed for a majority, with projections around 49-54 seats each amid a fragmented field. Arab parties hold potential balance-of-power seats but face exclusion from many coalitions, while internal bloc divisions over policy and partners complicate talks. Historical precedent of prolonged negotiations after close votes, combined with limited surplus agreements and threshold risks for smaller lists, supports trader consensus that this election is unlikely to produce an immediate government, raising the odds of one additional vote before resolution.