Recent redistricting finalized after U.S. Supreme Court rulings in 2026 restored Alabama’s 2023 congressional map, shifting District 2 from a Democratic-leaning seat won in 2024 back toward Republican favor with an R+7 partisan voter index. This leaves only the 7th District, held by incumbent Democrat Terri Sewell in a D+10 area, as a reliable Democratic hold while the other five districts rate as solid or safe Republican. Analysts rate the revised 2nd District as likely or lean Republican, though polls show it remains competitive depending on turnout and national conditions. These map changes explain the market’s strong consensus around one Democratic seat, with the secondary probability for two reflecting residual uncertainty over District 2 performance ahead of the November 3 election.