Anthropic’s October 18 announcement committing 5% of shares to a dedicated public benefit LLC, with explicit rules barring any political donations or lobbying, underpins the 88.5% “No” odds. The structure targets nonprofits, labor-market support, and AI safety initiatives rather than tax-advantaged Trump Accounts programs, aligning with the company’s prior emphasis on non-political giving and its history of funding AI-regulation groups instead of Trump-aligned PACs. With an IPO expected in November and ongoing tensions noted between Anthropic leadership and the administration, traders see little incentive for a sudden pivot by the November 30 deadline.